Weighing the Evidence

Byron Jacobs

Many decisions in hold’em are – for players with even just moderate experience – rather straightforward. For example, you are the pre-flop raiser and you are lucky enough to receive a favourable flop. So you bet. Nothing much to think about there. Or maybe you got a cheap/free play from one of the blinds but the flop hasn’t helped. Someone else seems to like their hand so you fold. Again, this decision is not likely to overly test the grey matter.

Sometimes though the correct play is not blindingly obvious and you need to consider some quite subtle factors to decide upon the best way to approach a hand. When a decision is close, then you need to gather in all available evidence to help you choose what to do. Here is an example.

You are playing in a game with opponents who in general appear to be competent but rather passive. Much of the time when players show strength the opposition simply backs off. A middle player limps in and everyone folds round to the small blind who also calls. You are in the big blind with Kc-5d and check. There are three players in the pot and three small bets. The flop comes down Kh-7d-2s and the small blind checks. Your first instinct should now be that this is a very decent flop for you and that you should bet your hand. However, you notice that this is a tiny pot and that your hand is actually rather strong. There is saying in chess that when you see a good move you should stop and look for a better one. Is there a better move here? Is this a good moment to check and slow play the hand?

Of course slow playing is a technique which is more often used with real powerhouses and not hands that merely consist of top pair and no kicker. However, hand values in hold’em are all relative and in this particular instance your pair of kings could easily put you as far ahead of the opposition as a set might in other circumstances. In fact, the arguments in favour of a slow play here are rather persuasive.

  1. The pot is tiny – just three small bets.
  2. The flop is completely uncoordinated so your opponents are most unlikely to stumble into straights and/or flushes.
  3. You are only vulnerable to one overcard.
  4. If you bet now it is probable that everybody will fold. However if you check then an opponent with a hand such as 9-8 may make a pair on the turn or pick up a straight draw. They will not get the right price to pursue this draw and so you will benefit from bets that go into the pot on the turn, regardless of the actual outcome of the hand.

There is an argument against slowplaying. If an opponent happens to have a lower pair with, say 9-7, then you are giving them a free shot to outdraw you. However, this is not that big a deal. Firstly, if the middle player has this hand they will almost certainly bet after you check and this will allow you to get in a favourable check raise. Secondly, if the small blind has this hand then they would probably have bet out on the flop. However, if the small blind does have such a holding and checked the flop then if you now bet they will (at the very least) call, so betting cannot protect your hand. If you are going to get drawn out on in this hand it will happen whether you slow play or not. However, by slowplaying you possibly create chances to gather in extra bets on the many occasions when you have the best hand and it stands up.

It is hard to criticise someone who bets out in this situation. However, slow playing with a check is also fine and is a more imaginative play. You are making a reasonable attempt to allow someone who would fold to an immediate bet to make a second best hand and pay you off. You are also adding a little deception to your play which may benefit you later in the session – especially if you are playing short-handed. Now let’s consider various slight changes to circumstances and see if this should affect our decision.

  1. You hold Qc-5d and the flop is Qh-7d-2s. Slow playing is now becoming more dangerous. There are two overcards that can arrive rather than one and this tilts the balance in favour of betting out and being satisfied with taking the pot down at once – if indeed that is the outcome.
  2. You hold Jc-5d and the flop is Jh-7d-2s. Slowplaying in the previous example was doubtful – now it is simply horrible. You are vulnerable to three overcards and there is a more subtle problem in that the high card – i.e. the jack – is now within touching distance of the 7 and this allows for gutshot straight possibilities. All sorts of draws can appear on the turn and you must make players pay to see this card.
  3. You hold Kc-5d and the flop is Kh-8s-7s. Again you must bet here and slowplaying is simply wrong. The key difference with the original scenario is the 8s-7s combination which has replaced the 7d-2s. This creates numerous drawing possibilities and makes it much more likely that you will get action from a straightforward bet. If an opponent has a hand like J-9 or J-10 they will think that they have as many as ten outs and may even take an aggressive posture in the hand. The point is that with Kh-7d-2s on the flop, it is hard to imagine a hand (other than one containing a 7) that will give you action. With Kh-8s-7s on board there is a much greater chance that you can get action without going to the trouble (and potential danger) of slowplaying.
  4. You hold Kc-5d and the flop is Kh-7s-2s. This is borderline. The flop is not at all connected but it does feature a two-flush and this in itself is always a danger. If the flop round is checked out and a third spade comes it will inevitably make it difficult for you to play the hand accurately.

    There is a further point here which becomes clear if you consider the situation from the point of view of your opponents. When the flop is Kh-7d-2s and you bet, then it looks like you have a pair as there is no hint of a draw anywhere. One of your opponents may be suspicious that you are stealing but with the pot being so small they are unlikely to go to the trouble of calling you down to find out. However, when you bet into the flop of Kh-7s-2s they will think that you might have a pair but that it is also possible that you are pushing a flush draw. Now a player with a hand such as 3-3 or A-9 might be more inclined to look you up. Again the point is that you can generate ‘natural’ action with a straightforward bet and don’t need to get involved in a slow play.
  5. You hold Qc-5d and the flop is Qh-7d-2s or you hold Kc-5d and the flop is Kh-7s-2s. These are examples ‘2’ and ‘4’ respectively but now the game is a more lively one. Although the players appear to be no more competent than in the original examples, they are now a much more active bunch – pushing draws, bluffing and semi-bluffing. Now slowplaying becomes more attractive. Just because players like to be active does not mean that they are suicidal. If you bet now and noone has anything they will most likely still give up. However, if the flop round is checked out and players pick up a piece of the board on the turn then you could get quite decent action. In these circumstances it is worth taking a risk by allowing a free card. If someone then bets and you raise you could get them to put two big bets into the pot when they are drawing pretty thin.

When a decision is close try to consider all the factors involved: the specific texture of the flop, the size of the pot, the nature of the game and even how your opponents perceive you. Poker is a game where players who make the best use of the information available will succeed. This information is everywhere – and the better players are good at spotting it and using it effectively. Make sure you do too.

Provided by Card Player, The Poker Authority

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